Professor Michael Economides, Univerisity of Houston:
Economides said he sees the price of oil going from $40 per barrel now to near $200 per barrel in 18 months partly due to geopolitical issues. But he said some of the problem in the oil industry is the fear factor.
"They always want to believe the worst," Economides said.
As a result, a downturn feeds on itself.
"It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.
Economides said the one thing that will certainly send prices up toward $200 is the headline, "Israel attacks Iran."
Barring that, Economides said that by September 2009, he is expecting the natural decline in production due to the aging of oilfields coupled with the reduction in drilling activity to bring the supply and demand into equilibrium.
And now we know exactly WHY it was that Dick Cheney wanted Israel to attack Iran.
But frankly, at $ 200.00 a barrel for oil, that kind of price would generate an end of fossil fuel domination, simply because some Americans would refused to be a slave to that kind of consumer price raping. More than a few Americans would go into their collective garages and come up with somehing else, something other than fossil fuel energy, so Mr. Economides better hope that Israel doesn't ever bomb Iran. Those old Mad Max movies really were works of fiction and if Mr. Economides wants to find out how to go out of business overnight, that my gosh, by all means, bring on the $ 200.00 a barrel crude oil and lets see where that leads.